As Iraqi forces close in on Mosul,
the possibility of chemical weapons
use looms large.
Iraqi forces wear gas masks for protection, as
smoke billows in the background from al-
Mishraq chemical plant [AFP]
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon is a
chemical weapons adviser to NGOs
working in Syria and Iraq.
It feels like this is the beginning of the end of
the campaign to liberate Mosul from the
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, and some
seem to be predicting that ISIL fighters will
drift away at some stage to fight another day
in Syria.
Those more than 100 suicide bombers seen in
the first week of the assault and those who set
light to al-Mishraq chemical plant would
suggest this is not the case and that ISIL (also
known as ISIS) will throw the kitchen sink at
the coalition to stave off losing Mosul.
With ISIL's Iraq strongholds gone, so is most
of the caliphate, no doubt with a final battle
in Raqqa - but the war hinges on Mosul.
Chemical weapons expert discusses ISIL 'chlorine
attack'
In this forthcoming apocalypse ISIL will fight
with every means available, and this will
include the use of their extensive chemical
weapons capability.
Built up over the past two years, ISIL has been
making mustard agent and fashioning toxic
industrial chemicals into improvised weapons,
which it has been testing by attacking the
Peshmerga of Iraqi Kurdistan.
More than 20 times in the past 12 months ISIL
has fired mortars and rockets at Peshmerga
troops in the Makhmour area containing the
"blister agent" mustard gas and chlorine, a
choking gas. Chlorine and mustard gas were
first developed in World War I as chemical
weapons and both can be fatal if gas masks
are not used.
These chemicals have killed few but injured
many, and as General Sirwan Barzani,
commander of the Peshmerga Black Tigers of
Sector 6, told me in August near Gwer: "I
know chemicals are not as dangerous as
bombs and bullets, but my men have few gas
masks and they fear chemicals."
A toxic legacy
The Kurds know all about chemical weapons;
it was Saddam Hussein who tried to
exterminate them in the 1980s in the Anfal
campaign , killing up to 100,000; and most
notably 5,000 in a single day at Halabja on
March 16, 1988, using the deadly nerve agent
sarin.
Bashar al-Assad used the same chemical
weapon in Ghouta on August 21, 2013 to
horrific effect. It is now Saddam's Baathist
scientists who are developing ISIL's chemical
capability.
On both occasions the death toll was very
high because it was innocent civilians who
were attacked who had no way or knowledge
to save themselves.
To underestimate ISIL's
capacity for terror is an
error, and to underestimate
its ability to conduct
chemical warfare would be
very unwise.
The Ghouta attack in Syria helped Assad to
stay in power for three years, and prevented
Damascus from falling.
His forces have also prevented ISIL from
taking the strategic military base at Deir Az-
Zor for the past two years with the use of
chlorine barrel bombs. This, I believe, has had
a profound effect on ISIL when planning their
defence of Mosul.
The first element of the defence of Mosul was
seen last week when ISIL set fire to al-
Mishraq chemical plant 30km south of Mosul.
This is putting huge amounts of deadly
hydrogen sulphide and sulphur dioxide into
the atmosphere, which is mixing with
poisonous fumes from oil fires to produce a
deadly cocktail.
OPINION: Remembering Halabja chemical attack
To date, several are reported dead and 1,000
injured. The cloud is currently sitting over the
military base Qayyarah, forcing the United
States military personnel into gas masks and
others indoors.
From a military perspective this is a good
move by ISIL, as it cuts through the advancing
Iraqi army, not all of whom have gas masks,
as they march towards Mosul.
If this toxic cloud were to move eastwards to
more populated areas this could be of grave
concern. Saddam Hussein set fire to Mishraq
in 2003, as the US coalition advanced into
Iraq. It burned for two months, caused
thousands of casualties, and allegedly burned
a hole in the ozone layer.
The capacity for terror
To underestimate ISIL's capacity for terror is
an error, and to underestimate its ability to
conduct chemical warfare would be very
unwise.
ISIL scientists have developed an extensive if
crude chemical arsenal including mustard
agent, chlorine and other toxic industrial
chemicals.
The battle for Mosul - The beginning of
the end
Chemical weapons are extremely effective for
defending built-up areas and cities, as they
put attackers into gas masks which make
fighting "hand-to-hand" exceedingly difficult.
And if they don't have masks, as some
Peshmerga and Iraqi army don't, chemical
weapons could make them think twice about
entering the city.
It is the psychological effect of these
abhorrent weapons which is of most use to
the defender; and it is this fear which must
be overcome by the attacker.
This could be achieved by good training and
leadership, which the coalition must continue
to provide to Baghdad and Erbil.
Even if this fear is overcome and Mosul is
conquered militarily, the final battle will not
be won unless we invest into a vast
humanitarian programme.
The millions of souls left who have had to
endure two years of ISIL brutality will not
thank us if we cannot feed and clothe them,
give them water and electricity, and prevent a
potential environmental disaster left behind
as ISIL's toxic legacy.
Executing these vital tasks will involve the
support of NGOs and those right behind the
frontlines. There will undoubtedly be all types
of toxic nasties left behind by ISIL, and we
must ensure that these NGOs have the
wherewithal to deal with them.
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon is a chemical
weapons adviser to NGOs working in Syria
and Iraq. He is a former commanding
officer of the UK Chemical, Biological,
Radiological and Nuclear Regiment and
NATO's Rapid Reaction CBRN Battalion.
The views expressed in this article are the
author's own and do not necessarily reflect
Al Jazeera's editorial policy.
